The global economy was in reasonable shape prior to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, having proven to be resilient to tariff-related uncertainty and buoyed by the rollout of AI. Growth in the US remained firm and 2026 was set to remain so in 2026. The UK and the Eurozone were lagging behind, but there were some signs that each of those economies were beginning to turn the corner, even if only modestly.

But events in the Middle East have produced renewed uncertainty around the path for inflation and interest rates. Consumer spending power is set to be squeezed and governments’ strained fiscal position might be set to come under renewed pressure. Economies in Europe as well as Asia are most at risk.

This session will look to unpack the global economic outlook, assessing the range of impacts from volatile energy markets, and how those impacts differ depending on the length of the conflict. It will also give the audience a view of the unfolding economic impacts of AI, how it’s influencing labour markets and productivity, and how these might develop in the future.